fix(growth): harden deterministic report evidence

2026-08-21 00:32:21 +03:30
parent 1d8d4edf92
commit 6c80f71847
11 changed files with 369 additions and 103 deletions
--- a/internal/growth/aggregate.go
+++ b/internal/growth/aggregate.go
@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+package growth
+
+import (
+	"slices"
+	"time"
+)
+
+type Session struct {
+	CreatedAt  time.Time `json:"createdAt"`
+	Status     string    `json:"status"`
+	AmountRial int64     `json:"amountRial"`
+}
+
+// AggregateDaily groups already-authorized, scope-filtered sessions by Tehran
+// local day. Paid and Verified are the only successful bank-payment statuses.
+func AggregateDaily(sessions []Session, catalog []Event) []DailyPoint {
+	byDate := make(map[string]DailyPoint)
+	for _, session := range sessions {
+		local := session.CreatedAt.In(tehranLocation())
+		date := time.Date(local.Year(), local.Month(), local.Day(), 0, 0, 0, 0, tehranLocation())
+		key := dayKey(date)
+		point := byDate[key]
+		point.Date = date
+		point.SessionCount++
+		if session.Status == "Paid" || session.Status == "Verified" {
+			point.PaidSessionCount++
+			point.PaidAmountRial += session.AmountRial
+		}
+		byDate[key] = point
+	}
+	points := make([]DailyPoint, 0, len(byDate))
+	for _, point := range byDate {
+		for _, event := range catalog {
+			if !dateBefore(point.Date, event.StartDate) && !dateAfter(point.Date, event.EndDate) {
+				point.EventIDs = append(point.EventIDs, event.ID)
+			}
+		}
+		slices.Sort(point.EventIDs)
+		points = append(points, point)
+	}
+	slices.SortFunc(points, func(a, b DailyPoint) int { return a.Date.Compare(b.Date) })
+	return points
+}
--- a/internal/growth/aggregate_test.go
+++ b/internal/growth/aggregate_test.go
@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+package growth
+
+import (
+	"testing"
+	"time"
+)
+
+func TestAggregateDailyUsesTehranDayAndSessionGrain(t *testing.T) {
+	sessions := []Session{
+		{CreatedAt: time.Date(2026, 1, 1, 20, 29, 0, 0, time.UTC), Status: "Paid", AmountRial: 100},
+		{CreatedAt: time.Date(2026, 1, 1, 20, 31, 0, 0, time.UTC), Status: "Verified", AmountRial: 200},
+		{CreatedAt: time.Date(2026, 1, 1, 21, 0, 0, 0, time.UTC), Status: "Failed", AmountRial: 900},
+	}
+	points := AggregateDaily(sessions, nil)
+	if len(points) != 2 || dayKey(points[0].Date) != "2026-01-01" || points[0].PaidAmountRial != 100 {
+		t.Fatalf("unexpected first day: %+v", points)
+	}
+	if dayKey(points[1].Date) != "2026-01-02" || points[1].SessionCount != 2 || points[1].PaidSessionCount != 1 || points[1].PaidAmountRial != 200 {
+		t.Fatalf("unexpected second day: %+v", points[1])
+	}
+}
+
+func TestAggregateDailyAnnotatesCatalogEvents(t *testing.T) {
+	events := []Event{{ID: "b", StartDate: date("2026-05-02"), EndDate: date("2026-05-02")}, {ID: "a", StartDate: date("2026-05-02"), EndDate: date("2026-05-02")}}
+	points := AggregateDaily([]Session{{CreatedAt: time.Date(2026, 5, 2, 8, 0, 0, 0, tehranLocation()), Status: "Paid", AmountRial: 10}}, events)
+	if len(points) != 1 || len(points[0].EventIDs) != 2 || points[0].EventIDs[0] != "a" || points[0].EventIDs[1] != "b" {
+		t.Fatalf("unexpected event annotation: %+v", points)
+	}
+}
--- a/internal/growth/analytics_test.go
+++ b/internal/growth/analytics_test.go
@@ -74,13 +74,25 @@ func TestDetectRisksRequiresTwentyPercentDropAndBaselineSize(t *testing.T) {
 	}
 }

+func TestDetectRisksCoalescesAdjacentDaysAndRanksDeepestFirst(t *testing.T) {
+	forecast := Forecast{Confidence: ConfidenceHigh, Points: []ForecastPoint{
+		{Date: date("2026-07-01"), BaselineSessions: 200, BaselineAmountRial: 1_000, PaidSessions: Range{P50: 150}, PaidAmountRial: Range{P50: 750}},
+		{Date: date("2026-07-02"), BaselineSessions: 200, BaselineAmountRial: 1_000, PaidSessions: Range{P50: 100}, PaidAmountRial: Range{P50: 500}},
+		{Date: date("2026-07-04"), BaselineSessions: 200, BaselineAmountRial: 1_000, PaidSessions: Range{P50: 120}, PaidAmountRial: Range{P50: 600}},
+	}}
+	risks := DetectRisks(forecast, 3)
+	if len(risks) != 2 || risks[0].Date != date("2026-07-01") || risks[0].EndDate != date("2026-07-02") || risks[0].SessionDeclineBPS != 5_000 {
+		t.Fatalf("unexpected ranked/coalesced risks: %+v", risks)
+	}
+}
+
 func TestEvaluatePeerAppliesPrivacyThresholdAndEqualMerchantWeight(t *testing.T) {
 	peers := make([]PeerMerchantValue, 10)
 	for i := range peers {
 		peers[i] = PeerMerchantValue{PaidSessions: int64(i + 1), SessionCount: 100}
 	}
 	result := EvaluatePeer(PeerInput{MerchantPaidSessions: 8, Peers: peers})
-	if result.State != PeerReady || result.MedianPaidSessions != 5 || result.PercentileBPS != 8_000 {
+	if result.State != PeerReady || result.MedianPaidSessions != 5 || result.PercentileBPS != 7_500 {
 		t.Fatalf("unexpected peer result: %+v", result)
 	}
 	suppressed := EvaluatePeer(PeerInput{TerminalScoped: true, Peers: peers})
@@ -90,7 +102,7 @@ func TestEvaluatePeerAppliesPrivacyThresholdAndEqualMerchantWeight(t *testing.T)
 }

 func TestFingerprintIsStableAndVersionSensitive(t *testing.T) {
-	input := FingerprintInput{MerchantID: 7, DatasetWatermark: "run-1", ForecastStart: date("2026-07-01"), HorizonDays: 90, CatalogVersion: "1", AnalyticsVersion: "1", PromptVersion: "1", SchemaVersion: "1", Model: "mini"}
+	input := FingerprintInput{MerchantID: 7, DatasetWatermark: "run-1", ForecastStart: date("2026-07-01"), HorizonDays: 90, CatalogVersion: "1", AnalyticsVersion: "1", PromptVersion: "1", SchemaVersion: "1", Model: "mini", ModelConfigVersion: "cfg-1"}
 	a := Fingerprint(input)
 	b := Fingerprint(input)
 	input.Model = "other"
@@ -99,6 +111,26 @@ func TestFingerprintIsStableAndVersionSensitive(t *testing.T) {
 	}
 }

+func TestPeerPercentileUsesMidRankForTies(t *testing.T) {
+	peers := make([]PeerMerchantValue, 10)
+	for index := range peers {
+		peers[index] = PeerMerchantValue{PaidSessions: 50, SessionCount: 100}
+	}
+	result := EvaluatePeer(PeerInput{MerchantPaidSessions: 50, Peers: peers})
+	if result.PercentileBPS != 5_000 {
+		t.Fatalf("all-tie percentile = %d, want 5000", result.PercentileBPS)
+	}
+}
+
+func TestFingerprintIncludesModelConfigurationPolicy(t *testing.T) {
+	input := FingerprintInput{MerchantID: 7, ForecastStart: date("2026-07-01"), HorizonDays: 90, Model: "mini", ModelConfigVersion: "cfg-1"}
+	first := Fingerprint(input)
+	input.ModelConfigVersion = "cfg-2"
+	if first == Fingerprint(input) {
+		t.Fatal("model configuration policy must invalidate fingerprint")
+	}
+}
+
 func TestTehranRefreshBoundary(t *testing.T) {
 	last := time.Date(2026, 8, 20, 20, 31, 0, 0, time.UTC) // 00:01 Tehran on Aug 21.
 	next := NextRefreshAt(last)
--- a/internal/growth/catalog.go
+++ b/internal/growth/catalog.go
@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ import (

 const officialCalendarSource = "https://calendar.ut.ac.ir/"
 const curatedCommercialSource = "CURATED_COMMERCIAL_1405_V1"
+const officialCalendarVersion = "IR_OFFICIAL_1404_1405_REVIEWED_2026-08-21"

 var importedMerchantCategories = []string{
 	"ارائه دهنده خدمات اینترنت",
@@ -23,12 +24,29 @@ var importedMerchantCategories = []string{
 // the first 90 forecast days after 2026-06-30.
 func Catalog1405() []Event {
 	events := []Event{
-		catalogEvent("nowruz-1405", "نوروز", "2026-03-21", "2026-03-24", "new-year", EventOfficial, []string{"هدیه", "خرید", "سال-نو"}),
-		catalogEvent("nature-day-1405", "روز طبیعت", "2026-04-02", "2026-04-02", "leisure", EventOfficial, []string{"تفریح", "خرید"}),
-		catalogEvent("teachers-day-1405", "روز معلم", "2026-05-02", "2026-05-02", "appreciation", EventOfficial, []string{"هدیه", "آموزش", "قدردانی"}),
-		catalogEvent("khordad-15-1405", "قیام پانزده خرداد", "2026-06-05", "2026-06-05", "official-holiday", EventOfficial, []string{"تعطیل"}),
-		catalogEvent("doctors-day-1405", "روز پزشک", "2026-08-23", "2026-08-23", "appreciation", EventOfficial, []string{"هدیه", "قدردانی", "حرفه‌ای"}),
-		catalogEvent("back-to-school-1405", "آمادگی بازگشایی مدارس", "2026-09-10", "2026-09-22", "education-season", EventCommercial, []string{"آموزش", "خرید", "مدرسه"}),
+		officialEvent("fathers-day-1404", "روز پدر", "2026-01-03", "2026-01-03", "appreciation", true, []string{"هدیه", "قدردانی"}),
+		officialEvent("mabath-1404", "مبعث پیامبر اکرم", "2026-01-17", "2026-01-17", "religious-holiday", true, []string{"تعطیل", "مناسبت-مذهبی"}),
+		officialEvent("imam-mahdi-birthday-1404", "نیمه شعبان", "2026-02-04", "2026-02-04", "religious-holiday", true, []string{"تعطیل", "مناسبت-مذهبی"}),
+		officialEvent("revolution-day-1404", "پیروزی انقلاب اسلامی", "2026-02-11", "2026-02-11", "national-holiday", true, []string{"تعطیل", "مناسبت-ملی"}),
+		officialEvent("imam-ali-martyrdom-1404", "شهادت امام علی", "2026-03-11", "2026-03-11", "religious-holiday", true, []string{"تعطیل", "مناسبت-مذهبی"}),
+		officialEvent("oil-nationalization-1404", "ملی شدن صنعت نفت", "2026-03-19", "2026-03-19", "national-holiday", true, []string{"تعطیل", "مناسبت-ملی"}),
+		officialEvent("nowruz-1405", "نوروز", "2026-03-21", "2026-03-24", "new-year", true, []string{"هدیه", "خرید", "سال-نو", "تعطیل"}),
+		officialEvent("islamic-republic-day-1405", "روز جمهوری اسلامی", "2026-04-01", "2026-04-01", "national-holiday", true, []string{"تعطیل", "مناسبت-ملی"}),
+		officialEvent("nature-day-1405", "روز طبیعت", "2026-04-02", "2026-04-02", "leisure", true, []string{"تفریح", "خرید", "تعطیل"}),
+		officialEvent("imam-sadegh-martyrdom-1405", "شهادت امام جعفر صادق", "2026-04-14", "2026-04-14", "religious-holiday", true, []string{"تعطیل", "مناسبت-مذهبی"}),
+		officialEvent("teachers-day-1405", "روز معلم", "2026-05-02", "2026-05-02", "appreciation", false, []string{"هدیه", "آموزش", "قدردانی"}),
+		officialEvent("eid-al-adha-1405", "عید قربان", "2026-05-27", "2026-05-27", "religious-holiday", true, []string{"تعطیل", "مناسبت-مذهبی"}),
+		officialEvent("khomeini-ghadir-1405", "رحلت امام خمینی و عید غدیر", "2026-06-04", "2026-06-04", "official-holiday", true, []string{"تعطیل", "مناسبت-ملی", "مناسبت-مذهبی"}),
+		officialEvent("khordad-15-1405", "قیام پانزده خرداد", "2026-06-05", "2026-06-05", "national-holiday", true, []string{"تعطیل", "مناسبت-ملی"}),
+		officialEvent("tasua-1405", "تاسوعای حسینی", "2026-06-24", "2026-06-24", "religious-holiday", true, []string{"تعطیل", "مناسبت-مذهبی"}),
+		officialEvent("ashura-1405", "عاشورای حسینی", "2026-06-25", "2026-06-25", "religious-holiday", true, []string{"تعطیل", "مناسبت-مذهبی"}),
+		commercialEvent("summer-midseason-1405", "میانه فصل تابستان", "2026-07-15", "2026-07-17", "seasonal-shopping", []string{"خرید", "تابستان", "پیشنهاد-فصلی"}, importedMerchantCategories),
+		officialEvent("arbaeen-1405", "اربعین حسینی", "2026-08-04", "2026-08-04", "religious-holiday", true, []string{"تعطیل", "مناسبت-مذهبی"}),
+		officialEvent("prophet-demise-1405", "رحلت پیامبر اکرم و شهادت امام حسن", "2026-08-12", "2026-08-12", "religious-holiday", true, []string{"تعطیل", "مناسبت-مذهبی"}),
+		officialEvent("doctors-day-1405", "روز پزشک", "2026-08-23", "2026-08-23", "appreciation", false, []string{"هدیه", "قدردانی", "حرفه‌ای"}),
+		officialEvent("prophet-birthday-1405", "میلاد پیامبر اکرم و امام جعفر صادق", "2026-08-30", "2026-08-30", "religious-holiday", true, []string{"تعطیل", "مناسبت-مذهبی"}),
+		commercialEvent("back-to-school-1405", "آمادگی بازگشایی مدارس", "2026-09-10", "2026-09-22", "education-season", []string{"آموزش", "خرید", "مدرسه"}, []string{"مراکز آموزشی مجازی", "کیف و کفش فروشی"}),
+		commercialEvent("autumn-opening-1405", "آغاز فصل پاییز", "2026-09-23", "2026-09-28", "seasonal-shopping", []string{"خرید", "پاییز", "پیشنهاد-فصلی"}, importedMerchantCategories),
 	}
 	result := make([]Event, len(events))
 	for index, event := range events {
@@ -39,18 +57,18 @@ func Catalog1405() []Event {
 	return result
 }

-func catalogEvent(id, title, start, end, family string, kind EventKind, tags []string) Event {
-	source := officialCalendarSource
-	if kind == EventCommercial {
-		source = curatedCommercialSource
-	}
-	return Event{ID: id, TitleFA: title, StartDate: mustCatalogDate(start), EndDate: mustCatalogDate(end), Family: family, Tags: slices.Clone(tags), Source: source, Categories: slices.Clone(importedMerchantCategories), Kind: kind}
+func officialEvent(id, title, start, end, family string, holiday bool, tags []string) Event {
+	return Event{ID: id, TitleFA: title, StartDate: mustCatalogDate(start), EndDate: mustCatalogDate(end), Family: family, Tags: slices.Clone(tags), Source: officialCalendarSource, SourceVersion: officialCalendarVersion, Kind: EventOfficial, OfficialHoliday: holiday, Universal: true}
+}
+
+func commercialEvent(id, title, start, end, family string, tags, categories []string) Event {
+	return Event{ID: id, TitleFA: title, StartDate: mustCatalogDate(start), EndDate: mustCatalogDate(end), Family: family, Tags: slices.Clone(tags), Source: curatedCommercialSource, SourceVersion: CatalogVersion, Categories: slices.Clone(categories), Kind: EventCommercial, Universal: false}
 }

 func ValidateCatalog(events []Event) error {
 	seen := make(map[string]struct{}, len(events))
 	for index, event := range events {
-		if strings.TrimSpace(event.ID) == "" || strings.TrimSpace(event.TitleFA) == "" || strings.TrimSpace(event.Family) == "" || strings.TrimSpace(event.Source) == "" {
+		if strings.TrimSpace(event.ID) == "" || strings.TrimSpace(event.TitleFA) == "" || strings.TrimSpace(event.Family) == "" || strings.TrimSpace(event.Source) == "" || strings.TrimSpace(event.SourceVersion) == "" {
 			return fmt.Errorf("growth catalog event %d is incomplete", index)
 		}
 		if _, exists := seen[event.ID]; exists {
@@ -63,8 +81,14 @@ func ValidateCatalog(events []Event) error {
 		if event.Kind != EventOfficial && event.Kind != EventCommercial {
 			return fmt.Errorf("growth catalog event %q has invalid kind", event.ID)
 		}
-		if len(normalizedSet(event.Tags)) == 0 || len(event.Categories) == 0 {
-			return fmt.Errorf("growth catalog event %q lacks tags or supported categories", event.ID)
+		if len(normalizedSet(event.Tags)) == 0 {
+			return fmt.Errorf("growth catalog event %q lacks tags", event.ID)
+		}
+		if event.Universal && len(event.Categories) != 0 {
+			return fmt.Errorf("growth catalog universal event %q must not contain categories", event.ID)
+		}
+		if !event.Universal && len(event.Categories) == 0 {
+			return fmt.Errorf("growth catalog scoped event %q lacks categories", event.ID)
 		}
 	}
 	return nil
--- a/internal/growth/catalog_test.go
+++ b/internal/growth/catalog_test.go
@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ func TestCatalog1405IsValidAndDefensivelyCopied(t *testing.T) {
 }

 func TestValidateCatalogRejectsDuplicateAndIncompleteEvents(t *testing.T) {
-	event := catalogEvent("duplicate", "رویداد", "2026-01-01", "2026-01-01", "family", EventOfficial, []string{"tag"})
+	event := officialEvent("duplicate", "رویداد", "2026-01-01", "2026-01-01", "family", false, []string{"tag"})
 	if err := ValidateCatalog([]Event{event, event}); err == nil {
 		t.Fatal("expected duplicate id error")
 	}
@@ -25,6 +25,22 @@ func TestValidateCatalogRejectsDuplicateAndIncompleteEvents(t *testing.T) {
 	}
 }

+func TestCatalogCoversImportedHistoryAndForecastHorizon(t *testing.T) {
+	catalog := Catalog1405()
+	if catalog[0].StartDate.After(date("2026-01-03")) || catalog[len(catalog)-1].EndDate.Before(date("2026-09-28")) {
+		t.Fatalf("catalog coverage is incomplete: %s..%s", catalog[0].StartDate, catalog[len(catalog)-1].EndDate)
+	}
+	var scoped bool
+	for _, event := range catalog {
+		if event.ID == "back-to-school-1405" {
+			scoped = !event.Universal && len(event.Categories) == 2
+		}
+	}
+	if !scoped {
+		t.Fatal("back-to-school event must preserve explicit category scope")
+	}
+}
+
 func TestAnalyzeEventEffectExcludesCatalogEventsFromBaseline(t *testing.T) {
 	target := Event{ID: "target", StartDate: date("2026-05-02"), EndDate: date("2026-05-02")}
 	excluded := Event{ID: "other", StartDate: target.StartDate.AddDate(0, 0, -7), EndDate: target.StartDate.AddDate(0, 0, -7)}
@@ -43,10 +59,31 @@ func TestAnalyzeEventEffectExcludesCatalogEventsFromBaseline(t *testing.T) {
 	}
 }

+func TestAnalyzeEventEffectUsesCompleteComparableWindows(t *testing.T) {
+	target := Event{ID: "two-day", StartDate: date("2026-05-02"), EndDate: date("2026-05-03")}
+	history := []DailyPoint{
+		{Date: date("2026-04-25"), SessionCount: 60, PaidSessionCount: 50, PaidAmountRial: 5_000},
+		{Date: date("2026-04-26"), SessionCount: 60, PaidSessionCount: 50, PaidAmountRial: 5_000},
+		{Date: date("2026-04-18"), SessionCount: 1_000, PaidSessionCount: 1_000, PaidAmountRial: 100_000}, // fragmented week, next day absent
+		{Date: date("2026-04-11"), SessionCount: 60, PaidSessionCount: 50, PaidAmountRial: 5_000},
+		{Date: date("2026-04-12"), SessionCount: 60, PaidSessionCount: 50, PaidAmountRial: 5_000},
+		{Date: date("2026-04-04"), SessionCount: 60, PaidSessionCount: 50, PaidAmountRial: 5_000},
+		{Date: date("2026-04-05"), SessionCount: 60, PaidSessionCount: 50, PaidAmountRial: 5_000},
+		{Date: date("2026-03-28"), SessionCount: 60, PaidSessionCount: 50, PaidAmountRial: 5_000},
+		{Date: date("2026-03-29"), SessionCount: 60, PaidSessionCount: 50, PaidAmountRial: 5_000},
+		{Date: target.StartDate, SessionCount: 80, PaidSessionCount: 75, PaidAmountRial: 7_500},
+		{Date: target.EndDate, SessionCount: 80, PaidSessionCount: 75, PaidAmountRial: 7_500},
+	}
+	effect := AnalyzeEventEffect(history, target, nil)
+	if effect.ObservationCount != 4 || effect.BaselineSessionCount != 120 || effect.ActualSessionCount != 160 || effect.PaidSessionUpliftBPS != 5_000 {
+		t.Fatalf("unexpected complete-window effect: %+v", effect)
+	}
+}
+
 func TestForecastSuppressesPoorBacktest(t *testing.T) {
 	start := date("2026-07-01")
-	history := make([]DailyPoint, 0, 90)
-	for i := 90; i > 0; i-- {
+	history := make([]DailyPoint, 0, 140)
+	for i := 140; i > 0; i-- {
 		value := int64(100)
 		if i%2 == 0 {
 			value = 1_000
@@ -54,7 +91,21 @@ func TestForecastSuppressesPoorBacktest(t *testing.T) {
 		history = append(history, DailyPoint{Date: start.AddDate(0, 0, -i), SessionCount: value, PaidSessionCount: value, PaidAmountRial: value * 1_000})
 	}
 	forecast := BuildForecast(history, nil, start, 90)
-	if forecast.Confidence != ConfidenceInsufficientData || len(forecast.Points) != 0 {
+	if forecast.Backtest.Origins < 4 || forecast.Confidence != ConfidenceInsufficientData || len(forecast.Points) != 0 {
 		t.Fatalf("poor model should be suppressed: %+v", forecast)
 	}
 }
+
+func TestBacktestUsesProductionTrendPredictorAcrossFourteenDayHorizons(t *testing.T) {
+	start := date("2026-07-01")
+	history := make([]DailyPoint, 0, 140)
+	for index := 0; index < 140; index++ {
+		block := index / 28
+		value := int64(100 + block*20)
+		history = append(history, DailyPoint{Date: start.AddDate(0, 0, index-140), SessionCount: value, PaidSessionCount: value, PaidAmountRial: value * 1_000})
+	}
+	forecast := BuildForecast(history, nil, start, 90)
+	if forecast.Backtest.Origins < 4 || forecast.Confidence == ConfidenceInsufficientData {
+		t.Fatalf("trend-aware rolling backtest should be usable: %+v", forecast.Backtest)
+	}
+}
--- a/internal/growth/events.go
+++ b/internal/growth/events.go
@@ -12,26 +12,46 @@ func AnalyzeEventEffect(history []DailyPoint, event Event, catalog []Event) Even
 	byDate := pointsByDate(history)
 	eventDays := daysInclusive(event.StartDate, event.EndDate)
 	var baselineSessions, baselinePaid, baselineAmount int64
+	actualComplete := true
 	for _, eventDay := range eventDays {
-		if point, ok := byDate[dayKey(eventDay)]; ok {
-			effect.ActualSessionCount += point.SessionCount
-			effect.ActualPaidSessions += point.PaidSessionCount
-			effect.ActualAmountRial += point.PaidAmountRial
+		point, ok := byDate[dayKey(eventDay)]
+		if !ok {
+			actualComplete = false
+			break
 		}
-		for week := 1; week <= 8; week++ {
+		effect.ActualSessionCount += point.SessionCount
+		effect.ActualPaidSessions += point.PaidSessionCount
+		effect.ActualAmountRial += point.PaidAmountRial
+	}
+	if !actualComplete {
+		effect.SuppressionReason = SuppressionIncompleteEventWindow
+		return effect
+	}
+	for week := 1; week <= 8; week++ {
+		var windowSessions, windowPaid, windowAmount int64
+		complete := true
+		for _, eventDay := range eventDays {
 			candidate := eventDay.AddDate(0, 0, -7*week)
 			if eventDates[dayKey(candidate)] {
-				continue
+				complete = false
+				break
 			}
 			point, ok := byDate[dayKey(candidate)]
 			if !ok {
-				continue
+				complete = false
+				break
 			}
-			effect.ObservationCount++
-			baselineSessions += point.SessionCount
-			baselinePaid += point.PaidSessionCount
-			baselineAmount += point.PaidAmountRial
+			windowSessions += point.SessionCount
+			windowPaid += point.PaidSessionCount
+			windowAmount += point.PaidAmountRial
 		}
+		if !complete {
+			continue
+		}
+		effect.ObservationCount++
+		baselineSessions += windowSessions
+		baselinePaid += windowPaid
+		baselineAmount += windowAmount
 	}
 	if effect.ObservationCount < MinBaselineObservations {
 		effect.SuppressionReason = SuppressionInsufficientObservations
@@ -45,9 +65,9 @@ func AnalyzeEventEffect(history []DailyPoint, event Event, catalog []Event) Even
 		return effect
 	}
 	effect.Eligible = true
-	effect.SessionUpliftBPS = changeBPS(effect.ActualSessionCount/int64(len(eventDays)), effect.BaselineSessionCount)
-	effect.PaidSessionUpliftBPS = changeBPS(effect.ActualPaidSessions/int64(len(eventDays)), effect.BaselinePaidSessions)
-	effect.AmountUpliftBPS = changeBPS(effect.ActualAmountRial/int64(len(eventDays)), effect.BaselineAmountRial)
+	effect.SessionUpliftBPS = changeBPS(effect.ActualSessionCount, effect.BaselineSessionCount)
+	effect.PaidSessionUpliftBPS = changeBPS(effect.ActualPaidSessions, effect.BaselinePaidSessions)
+	effect.AmountUpliftBPS = changeBPS(effect.ActualAmountRial, effect.BaselineAmountRial)
 	effect.MaterialWin = effect.PaidSessionUpliftBPS >= MaterialChangeBPS || effect.AmountUpliftBPS >= MaterialChangeBPS
 	effect.MaterialDecline = effect.PaidSessionUpliftBPS <= -MaterialChangeBPS || effect.AmountUpliftBPS <= -MaterialChangeBPS
 	return effect
@@ -140,6 +160,9 @@ func normalizeDate(value time.Time) time.Time {

 func dayKey(value time.Time) string { return normalizeDate(value).Format(time.DateOnly) }

+func dateBefore(a, b time.Time) bool { return dayKey(a) < dayKey(b) }
+func dateAfter(a, b time.Time) bool  { return dayKey(a) > dayKey(b) }
+
 func changeBPS(actual, baseline int64) int64 {
 	if baseline <= 0 {
 		return 0
--- a/internal/growth/forecast.go
+++ b/internal/growth/forecast.go
@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ func BuildForecast(history []DailyPoint, catalog []Event, start time.Time, horiz
 	if len(ordered) < minimumHistoryDays {
 		return result
 	}
-	result.Backtest = backtest(ordered)
+	result.Backtest = backtest(ordered, catalog)
 	result.Confidence = classifyConfidence(result.Backtest)
 	if result.Confidence == ConfidenceInsufficientData {
 		return result
@@ -31,28 +31,11 @@ func BuildForecast(history []DailyPoint, catalog []Event, start time.Time, horiz
 }

 func forecastPoints(history []DailyPoint, catalog []Event, start time.Time, horizon int) []ForecastPoint {
-	sessionResiduals, amountResiduals := residuals(history)
-	trendSessions := trendBPS(history, func(p DailyPoint) int64 { return p.PaidSessionCount })
-	trendAmount := trendBPS(history, func(p DailyPoint) int64 { return p.PaidAmountRial })
-	familyEffects := eventFamilyEffects(history, catalog)
+	sessionResiduals, amountResiduals := modelResiduals(history, catalog)
 	points := make([]ForecastPoint, 0, horizon)
 	for index := 0; index < horizon; index++ {
 		day := start.AddDate(0, 0, index)
-		baselineSessions := weekdayMedian(history, day.Weekday(), func(p DailyPoint) int64 { return p.PaidSessionCount })
-		baselineAmount := weekdayMedian(history, day.Weekday(), func(p DailyPoint) int64 { return p.PaidAmountRial })
-		predictedSessions := applyBPS(baselineSessions, trendSessions)
-		predictedAmount := applyBPS(baselineAmount, trendAmount)
-		eventIDs := make([]string, 0, 1)
-		for _, event := range catalog {
-			if day.Before(normalizeDate(event.StartDate)) || day.After(normalizeDate(event.EndDate)) {
-				continue
-			}
-			eventIDs = append(eventIDs, event.ID)
-			if uplift, ok := familyEffects[event.Family]; ok {
-				predictedSessions = applyBPS(predictedSessions, uplift.sessions)
-				predictedAmount = applyBPS(predictedAmount, uplift.amount)
-			}
-		}
+		baselineSessions, baselineAmount, predictedSessions, predictedAmount, eventIDs := predictCenter(history, catalog, day)
 		points = append(points, ForecastPoint{
 			Date: day, BaselineSessions: baselineSessions, BaselineAmountRial: baselineAmount,
 			PaidSessions:   rangeFromResiduals(predictedSessions, sessionResiduals),
@@ -65,7 +48,7 @@ func forecastPoints(history []DailyPoint, catalog []Event, start time.Time, hori
 func normalizedHistory(history []DailyPoint, before time.Time) []DailyPoint {
 	ordered := make([]DailyPoint, 0, len(history))
 	for _, point := range history {
-		if point.Date.Before(before) {
+		if dateBefore(point.Date, before) {
 			point.Date = normalizeDate(point.Date)
 			ordered = append(ordered, point)
 		}
@@ -97,13 +80,14 @@ func median(values []int64) int64 {
 	return (copyOfValues[middle-1] + copyOfValues[middle]) / 2
 }

-func residuals(history []DailyPoint) ([]int64, []int64) {
-	sessions := make([]int64, 0, len(history)-28)
-	amounts := make([]int64, 0, len(history)-28)
-	for index := 28; index < len(history); index++ {
+func modelResiduals(history []DailyPoint, catalog []Event) ([]int64, []int64) {
+	sessions := make([]int64, 0, maxInt(0, len(history)-minimumHistoryDays))
+	amounts := make([]int64, 0, maxInt(0, len(history)-minimumHistoryDays))
+	for index := minimumHistoryDays; index < len(history); index++ {
 		prior := history[:index]
-		sessions = append(sessions, history[index].PaidSessionCount-weekdayMedian(prior, history[index].Date.Weekday(), func(p DailyPoint) int64 { return p.PaidSessionCount }))
-		amounts = append(amounts, history[index].PaidAmountRial-weekdayMedian(prior, history[index].Date.Weekday(), func(p DailyPoint) int64 { return p.PaidAmountRial }))
+		_, _, predictedSessions, predictedAmount, _ := predictCenter(prior, catalog, history[index].Date)
+		sessions = append(sessions, history[index].PaidSessionCount-predictedSessions)
+		amounts = append(amounts, history[index].PaidAmountRial-predictedAmount)
 	}
 	return sessions, amounts
 }
@@ -147,22 +131,23 @@ func trendBPS(history []DailyPoint, value func(DailyPoint) int64) int64 {
 	return trend
 }

-func backtest(history []DailyPoint) BacktestResult {
+func backtest(history []DailyPoint, catalog []Event) BacktestResult {
 	result := BacktestResult{}
 	var sessionError, amountError, covered int64
 	var evaluated int64
-	first := len(history) - 28
-	for origin := first; origin < len(history); origin += 7 {
+	first := len(history) - 56
+	for origin := first; origin < len(history); origin += 14 {
 		if origin < minimumHistoryDays {
 			continue
 		}
 		result.Origins++
 		training := history[:origin]
-		sessionResiduals, amountResiduals := residuals(training)
-		for index := origin; index < minInt(origin+7, len(history)); index++ {
+		sessionResiduals, amountResiduals := modelResiduals(training, catalog)
+		for index := origin; index < minInt(origin+14, len(history)); index++ {
 			actual := history[index]
-			sessionRange := rangeFromResiduals(weekdayMedian(training, actual.Date.Weekday(), func(p DailyPoint) int64 { return p.PaidSessionCount }), sessionResiduals)
-			amountRange := rangeFromResiduals(weekdayMedian(training, actual.Date.Weekday(), func(p DailyPoint) int64 { return p.PaidAmountRial }), amountResiduals)
+			_, _, sessionCenter, amountCenter, _ := predictCenter(training, catalog, actual.Date)
+			sessionRange := rangeFromResiduals(sessionCenter, sessionResiduals)
+			amountRange := rangeFromResiduals(amountCenter, amountResiduals)
 			sessionError += absolutePercentageErrorBPS(actual.PaidSessionCount, sessionRange.P50)
 			amountError += absolutePercentageErrorBPS(actual.PaidAmountRial, amountRange.P50)
 			if actual.PaidSessionCount >= sessionRange.P10 && actual.PaidSessionCount <= sessionRange.P90 && actual.PaidAmountRial >= amountRange.P10 && actual.PaidAmountRial <= amountRange.P90 {
@@ -179,6 +164,26 @@ func backtest(history []DailyPoint) BacktestResult {
 	return result
 }

+func predictCenter(history []DailyPoint, catalog []Event, day time.Time) (int64, int64, int64, int64, []string) {
+	baselineSessions := weekdayMedian(history, day.Weekday(), func(p DailyPoint) int64 { return p.PaidSessionCount })
+	baselineAmount := weekdayMedian(history, day.Weekday(), func(p DailyPoint) int64 { return p.PaidAmountRial })
+	predictedSessions := applyBPS(baselineSessions, trendBPS(history, func(p DailyPoint) int64 { return p.PaidSessionCount }))
+	predictedAmount := applyBPS(baselineAmount, trendBPS(history, func(p DailyPoint) int64 { return p.PaidAmountRial }))
+	eventIDs := make([]string, 0, 1)
+	familyEffects := eventFamilyEffects(history, catalog)
+	for _, event := range catalog {
+		if dateBefore(day, event.StartDate) || dateAfter(day, event.EndDate) {
+			continue
+		}
+		eventIDs = append(eventIDs, event.ID)
+		if uplift, ok := familyEffects[event.Family]; ok {
+			predictedSessions = applyBPS(predictedSessions, uplift.sessions)
+			predictedAmount = applyBPS(predictedAmount, uplift.amount)
+		}
+	}
+	return baselineSessions, baselineAmount, predictedSessions, predictedAmount, eventIDs
+}
+
 func classifyConfidence(backtest BacktestResult) Confidence {
 	if backtest.Origins < 4 {
 		return ConfidenceInsufficientData
@@ -199,7 +204,7 @@ func eventFamilyEffects(history []DailyPoint, catalog []Event) map[string]family
 	result := make(map[string]familyUplift)
 	counts := make(map[string]int64)
 	for _, event := range catalog {
-		if event.Family == "" || event.StartDate.After(history[len(history)-1].Date) {
+		if event.Family == "" || dateAfter(event.StartDate, history[len(history)-1].Date) {
 			continue
 		}
 		effect := AnalyzeEventEffect(history, event, catalog)
@@ -249,11 +254,18 @@ func minInt(a, b int) int {
 	return b
 }

+func maxInt(a, b int) int {
+	if a > b {
+		return a
+	}
+	return b
+}
+
 func DetectRisks(forecast Forecast, limit int) []Risk {
 	if forecast.Confidence == ConfidenceInsufficientData || limit <= 0 {
 		return nil
 	}
-	risks := make([]Risk, 0, limit)
+	candidates := make([]Risk, 0, len(forecast.Points))
 	for _, point := range forecast.Points {
 		if point.BaselineSessions < MinBaselineSessions {
 			continue
@@ -263,10 +275,49 @@ func DetectRisks(forecast Forecast, limit int) []Risk {
 		if sessionDecline < MaterialChangeBPS && amountDecline < MaterialChangeBPS {
 			continue
 		}
-		risks = append(risks, Risk{EvidenceID: "risk:" + dayKey(point.Date), Date: point.Date, SessionDeclineBPS: maxInt64(0, sessionDecline), AmountDeclineBPS: maxInt64(0, amountDecline), ExpectedSessions: point.PaidSessions, ExpectedAmountRial: point.PaidAmountRial})
-		if len(risks) == limit {
-			break
+		candidates = append(candidates, Risk{Date: point.Date, EndDate: point.Date, SessionDeclineBPS: maxInt64(0, sessionDecline), AmountDeclineBPS: maxInt64(0, amountDecline), ExpectedSessions: point.PaidSessions, ExpectedAmountRial: point.PaidAmountRial})
+	}
+	coalesced := coalesceRisks(candidates)
+	slices.SortStableFunc(coalesced, func(a, b Risk) int {
+		aSeverity := maxInt64(a.SessionDeclineBPS, a.AmountDeclineBPS)
+		bSeverity := maxInt64(b.SessionDeclineBPS, b.AmountDeclineBPS)
+		if aSeverity > bSeverity {
+			return -1
+		}
+		if aSeverity < bSeverity {
+			return 1
+		}
+		return a.Date.Compare(b.Date)
+	})
+	if len(coalesced) > limit {
+		coalesced = coalesced[:limit]
+	}
+	return coalesced
+}
+
+func coalesceRisks(candidates []Risk) []Risk {
+	if len(candidates) == 0 {
+		return nil
+	}
+	result := make([]Risk, 0, len(candidates))
+	current := candidates[0]
+	for _, candidate := range candidates[1:] {
+		if dayKey(candidate.Date) != dayKey(current.EndDate.AddDate(0, 0, 1)) {
+			current.EvidenceID = EvidenceID("risk", dayKey(current.Date)+":"+dayKey(current.EndDate))
+			result = append(result, current)
+			current = candidate
+			continue
+		}
+		current.EndDate = candidate.EndDate
+		if candidate.SessionDeclineBPS > current.SessionDeclineBPS {
+			current.SessionDeclineBPS = candidate.SessionDeclineBPS
+			current.ExpectedSessions = candidate.ExpectedSessions
+		}
+		if candidate.AmountDeclineBPS > current.AmountDeclineBPS {
+			current.AmountDeclineBPS = candidate.AmountDeclineBPS
+			current.ExpectedAmountRial = candidate.ExpectedAmountRial
 		}
 	}
-	return risks
+	current.EvidenceID = EvidenceID("risk", dayKey(current.Date)+":"+dayKey(current.EndDate))
+	return append(result, current)
 }
--- a/internal/growth/opportunities.go
+++ b/internal/growth/opportunities.go
@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ import (
 func historicalWins(history []DailyPoint, catalog []Event, before time.Time) []EventEffect {
 	wins := make([]EventEffect, 0)
 	for _, event := range catalog {
-		if !event.EndDate.Before(before) {
+		if !dateBefore(event.EndDate, before) {
 			continue
 		}
 		effect := AnalyzeEventEffect(history, event, catalog)
@@ -48,7 +48,7 @@ func buildOpportunities(wins []EventEffect, catalog []Event, forecast Forecast,
 		historical := eventByID[win.EventID]
 		upcoming := make([]Event, 0)
 		for _, event := range catalog {
-			if !event.EndDate.Before(start) {
+			if !dateBefore(event.EndDate, start) {
 				upcoming = append(upcoming, event)
 			}
 		}
@@ -93,7 +93,7 @@ func buildOpportunities(wins []EventEffect, catalog []Event, forecast Forecast,
 func filterCatalog(catalog []Event, category string) []Event {
 	filtered := make([]Event, 0, len(catalog))
 	for _, event := range catalog {
-		if category == "" || len(event.Categories) == 0 || slices.Contains(event.Categories, category) {
+		if category == "" || event.Universal || slices.Contains(event.Categories, category) {
 			filtered = append(filtered, event)
 		}
 	}
--- a/internal/growth/peer.go
+++ b/internal/growth/peer.go
@@ -47,12 +47,14 @@ func EvaluatePeer(input PeerInput) PeerResult {
 	slices.Sort(values)
 	result.State = PeerReady
 	result.MedianPaidSessions = median(values)
-	var atOrBelow int64
+	var below, equal int64
 	for _, value := range values {
-		if input.MerchantPaidSessions >= value {
-			atOrBelow++
+		if input.MerchantPaidSessions > value {
+			below++
+		} else if input.MerchantPaidSessions == value {
+			equal++
 		}
 	}
-	result.PercentileBPS = atOrBelow * 10_000 / int64(len(values))
+	result.PercentileBPS = (2*below + equal) * 5_000 / int64(len(values))
 	return result
 }
--- a/internal/growth/report.go
+++ b/internal/growth/report.go
@@ -9,16 +9,17 @@ import (
 )

 type FingerprintInput struct {
-	MerchantID       int64     `json:"merchantId"`
-	TerminalID       string    `json:"terminalId,omitempty"`
-	DatasetWatermark string    `json:"datasetWatermark"`
-	ForecastStart    time.Time `json:"forecastStart"`
-	HorizonDays      int       `json:"horizonDays"`
-	CatalogVersion   string    `json:"catalogVersion"`
-	AnalyticsVersion string    `json:"analyticsVersion"`
-	PromptVersion    string    `json:"promptVersion"`
-	SchemaVersion    string    `json:"schemaVersion"`
-	Model            string    `json:"model"`
+	MerchantID         int64     `json:"merchantId"`
+	TerminalID         string    `json:"terminalId,omitempty"`
+	DatasetWatermark   string    `json:"datasetWatermark"`
+	ForecastStart      time.Time `json:"forecastStart"`
+	HorizonDays        int       `json:"horizonDays"`
+	CatalogVersion     string    `json:"catalogVersion"`
+	AnalyticsVersion   string    `json:"analyticsVersion"`
+	PromptVersion      string    `json:"promptVersion"`
+	SchemaVersion      string    `json:"schemaVersion"`
+	Model              string    `json:"model"`
+	ModelConfigVersion string    `json:"modelConfigVersion"`
 }

 func Fingerprint(input FingerprintInput) string {
@@ -30,6 +31,7 @@ func Fingerprint(input FingerprintInput) string {
 		DatasetWatermark: input.DatasetWatermark, HorizonDays: input.HorizonDays,
 		CatalogVersion: input.CatalogVersion, AnalyticsVersion: input.AnalyticsVersion,
 		PromptVersion: input.PromptVersion, SchemaVersion: input.SchemaVersion, Model: input.Model,
+		ModelConfigVersion: input.ModelConfigVersion,
 	}, ForecastDate: input.ForecastStart.In(tehranLocation()).Format(time.DateOnly)})
 	if err != nil {
 		return ""
@@ -95,6 +97,7 @@ func BuildFallback(bundle EvidenceBundle) []CampaignBrief {
 			HeadlineFA:    "یک فرصت مناسب در راه است: " + opportunity.EventTitleFA,
 			GuidanceFA:    "داده‌های قبلی شما نشان می‌دهد این مناسبت می‌تواند برای برنامه‌ریزی فروش ارزشمند باشد.",
 			OfferFA:       "پیشنهاد خود را متناسب با نیاز مشتریان این مناسبت آماده کنید.",
+			MessageFA:     "برای این مناسبت یک پیشنهاد ویژه برای شما آماده کرده‌ایم.",
 			PreparationFA: "موجودی، پیام کمپین و مسیر پرداخت را پیش از شروع مناسبت بررسی کنید.",
 			LimitationFA:  "این پیشنهاد بر پایه الگوهای گذشته است و نتیجه قطعی نیست.",
 			EvidenceIDs:   []string{opportunity.EvidenceID},
@@ -105,6 +108,7 @@ func BuildFallback(bundle EvidenceBundle) []CampaignBrief {
 			HeadlineFA:    "برای یک بازه آرام‌تر آماده باشید",
 			GuidanceFA:    "الگوی گذشته احتمال کاهش فعالیت را در این بازه نشان می‌دهد.",
 			OfferFA:       "یک پیشنهاد سبک برای حفظ ارتباط با مشتریان در نظر بگیرید.",
+			MessageFA:     "این روزها هم کنار شما هستیم؛ پیشنهادهای تازه را ببینید.",
 			PreparationFA: "پیام یادآوری و تجربه پرداخت را پیش از این بازه بازبینی کنید.",
 			LimitationFA:  "این هشدار بر پایه الگوهای گذشته است و نتیجه قطعی نیست.",
 			EvidenceIDs:   []string{risk.EvidenceID},
--- a/internal/growth/types.go
+++ b/internal/growth/types.go
@@ -3,8 +3,9 @@ package growth
 import "time"

 const (
-	CatalogVersion   = "1405.1"
-	AnalyticsVersion = "1.0.0"
+	CatalogVersion            = "1405.2"
+	AnalyticsVersion          = "1.1.0"
+	DefaultModelConfigVersion = "avalai-responses-v1-tools4-turns2-output1600"

 	MinBaselineObservations = 4
 	MinBaselineSessions     = 100
@@ -26,6 +27,7 @@ const (
 	SuppressionInsufficientObservations     SuppressionReason = "INSUFFICIENT_BASELINE_OBSERVATIONS"
 	SuppressionInsufficientBaselineSessions SuppressionReason = "INSUFFICIENT_BASELINE_SESSIONS"
 	SuppressionInsufficientHistory          SuppressionReason = "INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY"
+	SuppressionIncompleteEventWindow        SuppressionReason = "INCOMPLETE_EVENT_WINDOW"
 	SuppressionInsufficientCohort           SuppressionReason = "INSUFFICIENT_COHORT"
 	SuppressionTerminalScope                SuppressionReason = "TERMINAL_SCOPE_UNSUPPORTED"
 )
@@ -46,15 +48,18 @@ const (
 )

 type Event struct {
-	ID         string    `json:"id"`
-	TitleFA    string    `json:"titleFa"`
-	StartDate  time.Time `json:"startDate"`
-	EndDate    time.Time `json:"endDate"`
-	Family     string    `json:"family"`
-	Tags       []string  `json:"tags"`
-	Source     string    `json:"source"`
-	Categories []string  `json:"categories"`
-	Kind       EventKind `json:"kind"`
+	ID              string    `json:"id"`
+	TitleFA         string    `json:"titleFa"`
+	StartDate       time.Time `json:"startDate"`
+	EndDate         time.Time `json:"endDate"`
+	Family          string    `json:"family"`
+	Tags            []string  `json:"tags"`
+	Source          string    `json:"source"`
+	SourceVersion   string    `json:"sourceVersion"`
+	Categories      []string  `json:"categories"`
+	Kind            EventKind `json:"kind"`
+	OfficialHoliday bool      `json:"officialHoliday"`
+	Universal       bool      `json:"universal"`
 }

 type EventEffect struct {
@@ -127,6 +132,7 @@ type Opportunity struct {
 type Risk struct {
 	EvidenceID         string    `json:"evidenceId"`
 	Date               time.Time `json:"date"`
+	EndDate            time.Time `json:"endDate"`
 	SessionDeclineBPS  int64     `json:"sessionDeclineBps"`
 	AmountDeclineBPS   int64     `json:"amountDeclineBps"`
 	ExpectedSessions   Range     `json:"expectedSessions"`
@@ -142,6 +148,7 @@ type CampaignBrief struct {
 	HeadlineFA    string   `json:"headlineFa"`
 	GuidanceFA    string   `json:"guidanceFa"`
 	OfferFA       string   `json:"offerFa"`
+	MessageFA     string   `json:"messageFa"`
 	PreparationFA string   `json:"preparationFa"`
 	LimitationFA  string   `json:"limitationFa"`
 	EvidenceIDs   []string `json:"evidenceIds"`