fix(growth): validate reviewed event catalog

internal/growth/catalog.go

@@ -1,10 +1,23 @@
 package growth
 
-import "time"
+import (
+	"fmt"
+	"slices"
+	"strings"
+	"time"
+)
 
 const officialCalendarSource = "https://calendar.ut.ac.ir/"
 const curatedCommercialSource = "CURATED_COMMERCIAL_1405_V1"
 
+var importedMerchantCategories = []string{
+	"ارائه دهنده خدمات اینترنت",
+	"مراکز آموزشی مجازی",
+	"کیف و کفش فروشی",
+	"خدمات شبکه‌های کامپیوتری و اینترنت",
+	"فروشگاه لوازم آرایشی و بهداشتی",
+}
+
 // Catalog1405 returns a defensive copy of the reviewed initial catalog. Dates are
 // Gregorian Tehran-local calendar dates and cover the imported 1405 history plus
 // the first 90 forecast days after 2026-06-30.
@@ -14,10 +27,16 @@ func Catalog1405() []Event {
 		catalogEvent("nature-day-1405", "روز طبیعت", "2026-04-02", "2026-04-02", "leisure", EventOfficial, []string{"تفریح", "خرید"}),
 		catalogEvent("teachers-day-1405", "روز معلم", "2026-05-02", "2026-05-02", "appreciation", EventOfficial, []string{"هدیه", "آموزش", "قدردانی"}),
 		catalogEvent("khordad-15-1405", "قیام پانزده خرداد", "2026-06-05", "2026-06-05", "official-holiday", EventOfficial, []string{"تعطیل"}),
-		catalogEvent("fathers-day-commercial-1405", "روز پدر", "2026-08-25", "2026-08-25", "appreciation", EventCommercial, []string{"هدیه", "خرید", "قدردانی"}),
+		catalogEvent("doctors-day-1405", "روز پزشک", "2026-08-23", "2026-08-23", "appreciation", EventOfficial, []string{"هدیه", "قدردانی", "حرفه‌ای"}),
 		catalogEvent("back-to-school-1405", "آمادگی بازگشایی مدارس", "2026-09-10", "2026-09-22", "education-season", EventCommercial, []string{"آموزش", "خرید", "مدرسه"}),
 	}
-	return append([]Event(nil), events...)
+	result := make([]Event, len(events))
+	for index, event := range events {
+		result[index] = event
+		result[index].Tags = slices.Clone(event.Tags)
+		result[index].Categories = slices.Clone(event.Categories)
+	}
+	return result
 }
 
 func catalogEvent(id, title, start, end, family string, kind EventKind, tags []string) Event {
@@ -25,7 +44,30 @@ func catalogEvent(id, title, start, end, family string, kind EventKind, tags []s
 	if kind == EventCommercial {
 		source = curatedCommercialSource
 	}
-	return Event{ID: id, TitleFA: title, StartDate: mustCatalogDate(start), EndDate: mustCatalogDate(end), Family: family, Tags: append([]string(nil), tags...), Source: source, Kind: kind}
+	return Event{ID: id, TitleFA: title, StartDate: mustCatalogDate(start), EndDate: mustCatalogDate(end), Family: family, Tags: slices.Clone(tags), Source: source, Categories: slices.Clone(importedMerchantCategories), Kind: kind}
+}
+
+func ValidateCatalog(events []Event) error {
+	seen := make(map[string]struct{}, len(events))
+	for index, event := range events {
+		if strings.TrimSpace(event.ID) == "" || strings.TrimSpace(event.TitleFA) == "" || strings.TrimSpace(event.Family) == "" || strings.TrimSpace(event.Source) == "" {
+			return fmt.Errorf("growth catalog event %d is incomplete", index)
+		}
+		if _, exists := seen[event.ID]; exists {
+			return fmt.Errorf("growth catalog contains duplicate id %q", event.ID)
+		}
+		seen[event.ID] = struct{}{}
+		if event.StartDate.IsZero() || event.EndDate.Before(event.StartDate) {
+			return fmt.Errorf("growth catalog event %q has invalid date range", event.ID)
+		}
+		if event.Kind != EventOfficial && event.Kind != EventCommercial {
+			return fmt.Errorf("growth catalog event %q has invalid kind", event.ID)
+		}
+		if len(normalizedSet(event.Tags)) == 0 || len(event.Categories) == 0 {
+			return fmt.Errorf("growth catalog event %q lacks tags or supported categories", event.ID)
+		}
+	}
+	return nil
 }
 
 func mustCatalogDate(value string) time.Time {

internal/growth/catalog_test.go

@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+package growth
+
+import "testing"
+
+func TestCatalog1405IsValidAndDefensivelyCopied(t *testing.T) {
+	first := Catalog1405()
+	if err := ValidateCatalog(first); err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("catalog should be valid: %v", err)
+	}
+	first[0].Tags[0] = "mutated"
+	second := Catalog1405()
+	if second[0].Tags[0] == "mutated" {
+		t.Fatal("catalog tags escaped through a shared backing array")
+	}
+}
+
+func TestValidateCatalogRejectsDuplicateAndIncompleteEvents(t *testing.T) {
+	event := catalogEvent("duplicate", "رویداد", "2026-01-01", "2026-01-01", "family", EventOfficial, []string{"tag"})
+	if err := ValidateCatalog([]Event{event, event}); err == nil {
+		t.Fatal("expected duplicate id error")
+	}
+	event.Source = ""
+	if err := ValidateCatalog([]Event{event}); err == nil {
+		t.Fatal("expected missing source error")
+	}
+}
+
+func TestAnalyzeEventEffectExcludesCatalogEventsFromBaseline(t *testing.T) {
+	target := Event{ID: "target", StartDate: date("2026-05-02"), EndDate: date("2026-05-02")}
+	excluded := Event{ID: "other", StartDate: target.StartDate.AddDate(0, 0, -7), EndDate: target.StartDate.AddDate(0, 0, -7)}
+	history := make([]DailyPoint, 0, 9)
+	for week := 1; week <= 8; week++ {
+		count := int64(30)
+		if week == 1 {
+			count = 1_000
+		}
+		history = append(history, DailyPoint{Date: target.StartDate.AddDate(0, 0, -7*week), SessionCount: count, PaidSessionCount: count, PaidAmountRial: count * 100})
+	}
+	history = append(history, DailyPoint{Date: target.StartDate, SessionCount: 50, PaidSessionCount: 50, PaidAmountRial: 5_000})
+	effect := AnalyzeEventEffect(history, target, []Event{excluded})
+	if effect.ObservationCount != 7 || effect.BaselineSessionCount != 30 || !effect.MaterialWin {
+		t.Fatalf("catalog event polluted baseline: %+v", effect)
+	}
+}
+
+func TestForecastSuppressesPoorBacktest(t *testing.T) {
+	start := date("2026-07-01")
+	history := make([]DailyPoint, 0, 90)
+	for i := 90; i > 0; i-- {
+		value := int64(100)
+		if i%2 == 0 {
+			value = 1_000
+		}
+		history = append(history, DailyPoint{Date: start.AddDate(0, 0, -i), SessionCount: value, PaidSessionCount: value, PaidAmountRial: value * 1_000})
+	}
+	forecast := BuildForecast(history, nil, start, 90)
+	if forecast.Confidence != ConfidenceInsufficientData || len(forecast.Points) != 0 {
+		t.Fatalf("poor model should be suppressed: %+v", forecast)
+	}
+}